So listen, I grew up around a real estate family — my father, his brother, multiple cousins, all in real estate. And I said, “I never want to do real estate.” Famous last words, right? But here I am, and I have to tell you, I love it. Because at the end of the day, this job is about helping people through one of the biggest decisions of their lives. And that’s something I’ve always been drawn to — whether it was as a paramedic in New York, teaching CPR, or fighting fires. You help people. That’s what you do.

So every month, I want to sit down with you and just break down what’s happening in our market. No jargon, no fluff — just the stuff you actually need to know. And here’s the big headline this month: this is the most balanced market we’ve seen since before the pandemic. Let me tell you what that means.

So a lot of people have been asking me, “Meri, should I wait?” And look, I get it. Rates have been high. But here’s what’s happening right now: the 30-year fixed just dropped to 6.09%. That’s the lowest it’s been since around September 2022. A year ago, we were almost at 7%. So that’s a big move.

The 15-year fixed is at 5.44%, which, you know, if you can handle a higher monthly payment, that’s a great way to build equity faster. Something to think about.

Now, am I going to sit here and tell you we’re going back to those 2.5–3% rates from the pandemic? No. That was a once-in-a-lifetime thing. But the Fed made three cuts in the second half of 2025, and most of the forecasters are saying we’ll stay in the low-to-mid 6% range through this year. Some are even saying high 5s by summer.

And here’s the thing people don’t realize — every quarter-point drop in your rate gives you about 3% more purchasing power. So when you add that up with everything else I’m about to tell you, this is a very different market than it was two years ago.

Okay, so the numbers. Orange County’s median sale price hit $519,000 in January. Now, that sounds like a huge jump — 14% from a year ago — but January is always a weird month. You’ve got low volume, so the mix of what sold can skew things. The real trend is more like 5–8% appreciation, which is solid. Zillow has Chapel Hill’s overall home value at around $617,000.

But here’s what I really want you to pay attention to. Homes are sitting for 61 days now. A year ago? 39 days. That’s a big difference. We’ve got 254 homes on the market — up 11% — and we’re in that 3.5 to 4 months of supply range. A true balanced market is 5 to 6 months, so we’re not there yet, but we are a long way from that crazy sub-2-month inventory we had in 2022.

And this is the number that tells the whole story: almost 64% of December sales in Chapel Hill closed under the asking price. The average sale came in about 2–3% below list. So if you’re a buyer, you’ve got room. You can negotiate. That’s something you could not do two years ago.

Now, I always tell people, there are really two markets in Chapel Hill right now. If it’s a turnkey home in a great school district, walkable neighborhood? That’s still competitive. But everything else? You need to price it right, and you need to be patient. And if you’re a seller who’s not doing that, you know, the market is going to tell you.

So Chatham County — and I have to be honest, this is where my heart is. This county is one of the most exciting real estate stories in all of North Carolina right now. And a lot of people don’t even realize it yet.

The MLS median sale price was $589,900 in December. But here’s the thing — with all the new construction in the master-planned communities, the real median for the county is probably closer to $725,000. Pittsboro specifically came in at $530,000, up 5% from last year.

The market is cooling down, but in a good way. Days on market went from 29 to 41 days. And you know what really tells the story? Due diligence deposits. During the pandemic, people were putting down $25,000, $50,000 in due diligence just to get a house. Now? We’re seeing $2,500 to $5,000. That’s a huge shift. Buyers have leverage again.

If you’re looking for something more affordable, Siler City is still your best bet in Chatham County — average home values are around $247,000. Goldston is even lower. But I want to be real with you — to buy the median home in Pittsboro right now, you’re looking at needing about $119,000 a year in household income. So it’s important to know your numbers, and that’s something I can help you figure out.

Okay, this is the part where I get really excited, because what’s happening in both of these communities right now is going to change everything. And I mean that.

Chatham Park is 8,500 acres — the largest land development on the entire East Coast. They already have over 850 families living in North Village, plus a whole mixed-use district with restaurants, a Hampton Inn, and a brand-new $26 million YMCA.

And then there’s Disney’s Asteria. They broke ground last June on about 1,500 acres inside Chatham Park. This is a 55-plus community with roughly 4,000 homes planned and Disney-curated amenities. I mean, we’re talking about Disney. Home sales start in 2027, first move-ins around 2028. And right next to it, PulteGroup’s Del Webb community is adding another 800 homes for the 55-plus market.

Now, there is a South Village plan that was approved late last year for 15,000 more housing units, but there’s a lawsuit from the Southern Environmental Law Center that could slow that down. I’m watching it closely.

Chapel Hill just did something pretty bold. In January, the Town Council got rid of mandatory parking minimums for new developments, made it easier to build duplexes and accessory dwelling units, and streamlined the whole review process. That’s a big deal for getting more housing built.

South Creek is going up on 120 acres along 15-501 — over 800 residences, everything from condos in the high $300s to $2 million penthouses. First apartments open this summer.

And then Carolina North — this is UNC’s biggest expansion since, well, since 1793 when they founded the place. The old Horace Williams Airport site is becoming a 230-acre mixed-use campus. Student housing, workforce housing, research, retail, dining. Groundbreaking summer 2027.

The town also put together a $20 million Affordable Housing Loan Fund with UNC Health, and they’ve got 1,300 affordable units in the pipeline over the next five years. That tells you Chapel Hill is serious about making sure this community stays a place for everyone, not just people who can afford $600,000 homes.

Three things to keep your eye on. Toyota’s battery plant over in Liberty is already up and running, shipping batteries, and ramping up to over 5,100 jobs. That’s the good news. Wolfspeed went through a quick bankruptcy but came out the other side with less debt and almost $700 million in CHIPS Act money — but the Siler City plant’s future is still a question mark. And VinFast’s EV factory in Moncure has been pushed back to 2028. Not a lot of visible progress, but the site is ready to go if they — or someone else — pulls the trigger. A FedEx hub also opened nearby with about 300 jobs.

 Look, whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or you just have a question about what’s happening in your neighborhood — I’m here. That’s what I do. If I don’t have the answer, I find the answer. You’re not alone in this. Reach out anytime.

Talk soon,

Meri Lynch

REALTOR® | Coldwell Banker HPW

Your Chatham County & Chapel Hill Guide

(919) 559-4523

Meri Lynch | Coldwell Banker Howard Perry and Walston

Sources: Doorify MLS, Redfin, Zillow, Freddie Mac, Real Estate by Design, Eric Andrews. Data current as of mid-February 2026. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice