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Mortgage rates climbed back to ~6.4% after briefly dipping below 6% in February — what happened?
Chapel Hill homes are sitting nearly twice as long as last year. What that means for buyers and sellers.
Chatham County is still growing, but the affordability gap is getting harder to ignore.
Meri's spring take: this is the most balanced market we've had in years — and that's a good thing.
Hey everybody — it's Meri.
So remember back in February when we were all getting excited because mortgage rates finally dipped below 6%? Yeah. That didn't last. As of this week, the 30-year fixed is sitting around 6.4%, and it's been climbing for four straight weeks. A combination of inflation uncertainty and global tensions — including the situation in Iran — pushed bond yields up, and mortgage rates followed.
The Fed held steady at its March meeting, keeping the benchmark rate at 3.50–3.75%. The next meeting is April 28–29. Nobody's expecting a cut this round, but the longer-term trend for 2026 still leans toward lower rates as the year goes on. The question is when, not if.
So what does that mean for us locally?
Chapel Hill is feeling it. The median sale price landed around $520,000 in February — essentially flat from a year ago, and actually down slightly. But here's the bigger story: homes are sitting. The average time on market has nearly doubled compared to last year, stretching to around 50 days. Sales volume is down too. This isn't a crash — it's a market catching its breath after years of running hot. If you're a buyer who got shut out during the frenzy, you actually have some breathing room right now.
Home values overall are still holding around $605,000 according to Zillow, with modest year-over-year appreciation of about 2%. Inventory across the Triangle jumped more than 24% over last year. That's more choices for buyers and a reality check for sellers who are still pricing like it's 2022.
Chatham County is in a similar spot — still desirable, still growing, but the affordability gap is getting harder to ignore. Homes in Pittsboro are sitting for a median of 100+ days. The Chatham Journal ran a great piece this past weekend, capturing the tension: people still want to live here, prices are still inching up, but local incomes aren't keeping pace. The development pipeline — Chatham Park, Disney's Asteria, the MOSAIC district — still promises long-term growth. But right now, the market is asking buyers to be patient and sellers to be realistic.
My take heading into spring: This is the most balanced market we've had in years. It's not a fire sale, and it's not a frenzy — it's something in between, and honestly, that's healthy. If you're buying, don't wait for 5% rates to magically appear. If you're selling, price it right the first time. Homes that are well-priced and well-presented are still moving. The ones that sit? They were priced too high on day one.
Talk soon,
Meri Lynch REALTOR® | Coldwell Banker HPW Your Chapel Hill & Chatham County Guide
Have questions about what your home is worth or what's happening in your neighborhood? Reach out to Meri at merilynch.hpw.com.