So spring is officially here, and I have to tell you — this is the market I've been waiting to talk to you about. Because for the first time in a long time, the numbers are lining up in a way that actually works for people. Not just sellers. Not just investors. Regular people trying to make a smart move with their biggest asset. Let me break it down.

So a lot of you saw the headlines — the 30-year fixed just hit 6.00%. That's the Freddie Mac weekly average as of March 5th, and it's the lowest we've seen in over three years. Over three years. Let that sink in.

A year ago at this time? That same rate was 6.63%. So we've dropped nearly a full percentage point in twelve months. The 15-year fixed is at 5.43%, which — if you can handle the higher monthly payment — is a really attractive way to build equity faster.

Now here's what I'm watching. The Fed meets March 17–18, and the latest inflation numbers just dropped this week. What those reports say is going to shape whether rates stay here, dip lower, or bounce back up a little. Most of the forecasters are calling for rates to hover right around 6% through the rest of 2026. Some of the more optimistic ones are saying high 5s by summer. Morgan Stanley even put out a number of 5.50–5.75% by mid-year if treasury yields keep falling.

And remember what I told you last month — every quarter-point drop gives you about 3% more purchasing power. So when you add that up with the inventory picture I'm about to walk you through, this is a very different market than it was even six months ago.

Am I going to tell you we're going back to 3%? No. But 6% with leverage and breathing room? That's something buyers haven't had since before the pandemic.

Okay, so the numbers. Chapel Hill's median sale price came in at $555,000 in January — and that's actually down about 7% from a year ago. Now, I want to be careful with that number. January is always low volume, so the mix of what sold can skew things. Zillow's broader home value index has Chapel Hill at around $605,000, up a modest 2%. So the sky is not falling. But the market has shifted.

And here's the number that really tells the story. Homes are sitting for 74 days now. Last year at this time? 32 days. That's more than double. We've got close to 400 active listings on the market right now — significantly more inventory than we've had in years. And homes are closing at about 96–97% of list price.

So if you're a buyer, you've got room. You can negotiate. You can actually sleep on it and come back the next day without losing the house. That's something you could not do two years ago.

Now, I always tell people — there are still two markets in Chapel Hill. If it's a turnkey home in a strong school zone, walkable neighborhood? That's still going to move. But everything else? You need to price it right from day one. And if you're a seller who's not doing that, the market is going to tell you. Loudly.

I have to bring this up, because if you're buying or selling in Chapel Hill right now, this matters. The Chapel Hill–Carrboro school board just voted 4–3 to study closing up to two elementary schools — they're looking at Ephesus, Seawell, and Glenwood. The decision on which ones actually close is expected by June, with closures taking effect fall 2027.

Why does this matter for real estate? Because school assignments drive home values in this market. Period. When a school closes, the entire district gets redistricted. That means the school your house is zoned for could change — and depending on where you land, that can move your property value up or down.

The district is losing about 300 students a year and facing a multi-million dollar budget gap. But here's the part that a lot of people are pointing out — Chapel Hill is about to add over 2,000 new homes in the next few years between South Creek, Coker Place, and other projects. So some folks are asking whether these closures are premature when that much new housing is coming online.

I'm not here to take a political side. But as your real estate person, I want you to know this is happening. If you're selling a home near one of those schools, or buying into a zone that might shift, that's a conversation you need to be having with your agent.

So Chatham County — and I have to be honest, this is still where my heart is. But I also have to be straight with you about the numbers, because the headlines can be misleading.

The county-wide median sale price was about $629,000 in January, which looks like a big drop — down roughly 12–13% from a year ago. But here's the thing people don't realize. Chatham County is not one market. It's a patchwork. You've got established neighborhoods near downtown Pittsboro, brand-new construction in the master-planned communities, rural tracts with development potential, and high-end custom builds on bigger parcels. The mix of what sold in any given month can swing that median dramatically.

Pittsboro specifically is holding much steadier. The median there is around $515,000, down just about 2% year over year. But Zillow has Pittsboro home values at $512,000, actually up 5% over the past year. So the truth is probably somewhere in between, which is: Pittsboro is holding its value.

Days on market have stretched to about 73 days, up from the mid-50s last year. So things are cooling, but in that healthy way where buyers actually get to breathe. And Siler City is still your value play if you're looking for something more affordable in Chatham County.

This is the part where I get really excited, because the development story in this area right now is unlike anything I've seen.

Chatham Park & Disney's Asteria — Chatham Park is still 8,500 acres, still the largest land development on the East Coast. They've got over 850 families in North Village, the mixed-use district is humming, and the $26 million YMCA is open and packed. Disney's Asteria is now past the planning stage — the Pittsboro Board of Commissioners approved the phase one preliminary plan: 494 homes on 217 acres. Construction broke ground last June. Home sales are still on track for 2027, first move-ins around 2028. PulteGroup's Del Webb is still adding another 800 homes for the 55-plus market right next door. The South Village expansion (up to 15,000 more units) still has the Southern Environmental Law Center lawsuit pending.

South Creek — First Units This Summer. Right across from Southern Village on 15-501, the first 92 rental apartments open this summer. Townhome sales open 2027. At full build-out: 800+ residences plus commercial space, with market-rate for-sale units ranging from $300K to over $1 million. They're building pedestrian connections into Southern Village, which is smart.

Carolina North — UNC's Biggest Move in 200 Years. The university's 250-acre expansion on the old Horace Williams Airport site just got $8 million approved for advance planning. They're issuing RFQs for master planning right now, this spring. Groundbreaking is targeted for summer 2027. Student housing, workforce housing, research, retail, dining, entertainment. And there's talk about whether a new basketball arena could end up there too. This is going to reshape the north side of Chapel Hill over the next decade.

Three things I told you about last month, and here's where they stand.

Toyota's battery plant in Liberty — fully operational and shipping batteries. Officially launched production late last year with a big ceremony, Governor Stein was there. The plant represents a $13.9 billion investment and is ramping up toward over 5,000 jobs. They're actively hiring right now. This is the good news story.

Wolfspeed in Siler City — more complicated. They went through Chapter 11 bankruptcy last summer, came out in about 90 days, and cut their debt by $4.5 billion. The Siler City plant is built — 2.2 million square feet, over 200 employees on site. They received about $700 million in CHIPS Act tax credits in December. But the direct CHIPS Act grant of $750 million never came through, and they're still running below capacity while demand catches up. Supposed to employ 1,800 by 2030. Cautiously optimistic, but watching closely.

VinFast in Moncure — and look, I have to be honest. Not a lot of visible progress. The factory has been pushed back to 2028, and the picture hasn't changed much. The state has spent close to $96 million on infrastructure, but VinFast's focus has shifted toward Asia. They say they're still committed to North Carolina, but the 7,500 jobs they promised? I'm not counting those until I see construction moving. The good news is the site is ready — if VinFast doesn't build, somebody else could. A FedEx hub opened nearby with about 300 jobs, so the infrastructure investment isn't wasted.

That's the market as we head into spring. Look, whether you're thinking about buying, selling, or you just have a question about what's happening in your neighborhood — I'm here. That's what I do. If I don't have the answer, I find the answer. You're not alone in this.

Talk soon,

Meri Lynch REALTOR® | Coldwell Banker HPW Your Chatham County & Chapel Hill Guide

Have questions about what your home is worth — or what's happening in your specific neighborhood? Reach out to Meri Lynch

(919) 559-4523

Meri Lynch | Coldwell Banker Howard Perry and Walston

Sources: Doorify MLS, Redfin, Zillow, Freddie Mac, Real Estate by Design, Eric Andrews. Data current as of mid-February 2026. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice